The 51.9% who voted to leave were caressing the prospect of a return to the glory days, to a time where Britannia ruled the waves.
Brexit: a logistical, political and economic headache
From a logistical point of view, it was a mayhem since day one. First, it took almost a year to officially trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty since there was a legal challenge to the right of the British cabinet to trigger it without the consent of the House. Afterwards, Britain introduced the EU Bill to revoke the 1972 European communities Act.
The next step will take place on 29 March 2019, when the two-year negotiation period between London and Brussels come to an end. If the negotiations were not to be extended, the UK might have a “soft Brexit” or a “hard Brexit”. On one hand, Great Britain could reach an agreement similar to the Norwegian model. In other words, the kingdom would leave the EU while still entitled to all the advantages of the European single market. On the other hand, London could choose to leave the EU and the single market for good. Before sealing its fate, a 21-month transition period will be implemented to adjust to the post-Brexit era before cutting all ties with Brussels.
From a political point of view, Brexit has seriously threatened the
unity of the United Kingdom. It has attracted the wrath of Scotland and of its
First Minister. She strongly labelled the Brexit referendum as “democratically
unacceptable” since 62% of the Scottish voters were in favor of remaining in
the EU. Thus, reviving the Scottish independence topic.
However, the most urgent issue is the smallest member of the UK, Northern Ireland. Like Scotland, most of its population wanted to remain in the EU, but the land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, proves to be a critical issue for both parties. Currently, it is possible to move freely between the two entities. Northern Ireland might end up in a customs union with the EU, a “serious threat to the Kingdom’s constitutional integrity,” according to London.
From an economic point of view, there are numerous uncertainties surrounding post-Brexit Britain. The outline for future relations with the EU and the world regarding trade, travel, and security have not yet been fully discussed. Moreover, it has not been disclosed how the EU divorce bill would be calculated, estimated in a range between £30 million to £50 million. Additionally, there is still a possibility for both parties to fail to agree on the terms of a deal before March 2019. In this case, the UK has to trade according to the WTO rules, ultimately hurting and diminishing the role of London as a major financial hub.
The « BREXIT in a nutshell » posts are abstracts of a university paper written by my brother.
At first, I asked for the paper to get some facts straight. However, while reading, I realized that it was clear, simple, understandable, straight to the point, and I couldn’t do a better job addressing the topic. Therefore, with my brother’s consent, I tweaked the passages & published it.